The Future of War, the Wars of the Future

Szerzők

  • Kiss Roland főhadnagy

Kulcsszavak:

counterinsurgency, MOOTW, hybrid warfare, economic or financial warfare, networking, non-linear wars, insurgencies, modern tribal wars, migration

Absztrakt

War is an organic part of human history, and we can say it is part of life, or in some regions of our World it is life itself. It would be very naive to think that we can ever get rid of war; it is part of human nature. For this reason we face another problem, if we cannot get rid of war, we have to prepare for it, but how can we predict what kind of it will come to us. This problem has caused much headache for politicians and soldiers, strategists and theoreticians, who have had the task: prepare troops for the next war. Many times they have failed and their countries have fallen or suffered more than they had needed to. A common mistake was that they have prepared to win the last fought war, not the next one. The goal of this paper is not to give exact predictions of future wars, but to discover current tendencies. Upon this we can draw possibilities, which may bring us closer to possible future realities. The real goal is to think out of the box and shed light on this very rich topic from other perspectives and trigger others for further thinking, because this paper in itself cannot be perfect or complete therefore it should be only a starting point or a station of a long journey. We are on the edge of something, but it may be too early to determine whether we are on the end of an age or this is already the beginning of a new one.

Információk a szerzőről

Kiss Roland főhadnagy

is a reserve officer of the HDF and a PhD student of the National University of Public Service. His main research areas are the Asia-Pacific strategy of the United States and the US armed forces. 

Hivatkozások

"1 in 3 'Syrian' refugees have fake IDs, German authorities admit". RT. 26 September 2015. https://www.rt.com/news/316570-eu-false-syrian-refugees/, Accessed on 4 October 2015.

"2013 Quadrennial Defence Review". http://qdr.mnd.gov.tw/file/2013QDR-en.pdf, Accessed on 06 October 2015.

American War Generals: film. National Geographic. 2014.

Bender, J. "Mexico's drug war is getting even worse". Business Insider. 14 May 2015. http://www.businessinsider.com/mexicos-drug-war-is-taking-worse-turn-2015-5, Accessed on 23 September 2015.

Bowden, M. "A defining battle". The Inquirer, 16 November 1997. http://inquirer.philly.com/packages/somalia/nov16/rang16.asp, Accessed on 11 September 2015.

Bracken, P. "Financial Warfare". FPRI. 13 September 2007. http://www.fpri.org/articles/2007/09/financial-warfare, Accessed on 08 November 2015.

Brown, A. "'Just wait…' Islamic State reveals it has smuggled THOUSANDS of extremists into Europe". Express. 18 November 2015. http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/555434/Islamic-State-ISISSmuggler-THOUSANDS-Extremists-into-Europe-Refugees, Accessed on 26 November 2015.

Burman, J. "Migrants REFUSE to claim asylum in Denmark - because they do not get enough BENEFITS". Express. 17 September 2015. http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/605252/Migrants-Denmark-Finland-Sweden-Marwen-el-Mohammed-TV2-News-Immigration-Refugee, Accessed on 4 October 2015.

"Children used as human shields in Syria war – UN". Inquirer. 13 June 2013.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/425643/children-used-as-human-shields-in-syria-war-un, Accessed on 23 October 2015.

Clausewitz, C. von. On War. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

"Contractor support of U.S. operations in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility, Iraq and Afghanistan". www.acq.osd.mil/log/PS/.CENTCOM_reports.html/5A_Dec2010.doc, Accessed on 23 September 2015.

"Country comparison: GDP (purchasing power parity)". CIA. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html#hu, Accessed on 22 October 2015.

"Cyber Warfare". RAND. http://www.rand.org/topics/cyber-warfare.html, Accessed on 1 November 2015.

Fábián S. "Professional Irregular Defence Forces: the Other Side of COIN". Monterey: Naval Postgraduate School, 2012.

Fischer, H. A Guide to U.S. Military Casualty Statistics: Operation Freedom’s Sentinel, Operation Inherent Resolve, Operation New Dawn, Operation Iraqi Freedom, and Operation Enduring Freedom. Congressional Research Service, 2015.

Gamero-Garrido, A. "Cyber Conflicts in International Relations: Framework and Case Studies". Massachusetts Institute of Technology. http://ecir.mit.edu/images/stories/Gamero_Case%20studies%20in%20Cyber%20Conflict_Final.pdf, Accessed on 23 September 2015.

Gerasimov, V. "The value of science in prediction". In The ‘Gerasimov Doctrine’ and Russian Non-Linear War. Moscow's Shadows. https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2014/07/06/thegerasimov-doctrine-and-russian-non-linear-war/, Accessed on 11 September 2015.

Grevatt, J. "The As-Pac cyber challenge". Jane’s Defence Weekly, 11 February 2015.

Hoffman, F. G. "Hybrid vs. compound war". Armed Forces Journal 1 October 2009. http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/hybrid-vs-compound-war/, Accessed on 06 October 2015.

Hohman, L. "35 million Muslim migrants may set sights on Europe". World Net Daily. 18 September 2015. http://www.wnd.com/2015/09/35-million-muslim-migrants-may-set-sights-on-europe/, Accessed on 9 October 2015.

Hurd, D. "Native French under Attack in Muslim Areas". CBN. http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/world/2014/April/Native-French-under-Attack-in-Muslim-Areas/, Accessed on 10 October 2015.

Kassam, R. "ANALYSIS: BBC Pictures Show 53% Migrant Kids, Just 36% Men – Hugely Out Of Step With Official Stats". Breitbart. 21 September 2015. http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/09/21/analysis-bbc-pictures-show-53-migrant-kids-just-36-men-out-of-step-with-reality/, Accessed on 09 October 2015.

Keegan, J. Az iraki háború. Budapest: Európa Könyvkiadó, 2004.

Kern, S. "European 'No-Go' Zones: Fact or Fiction? Part 1: France". Gatestone Institute. 20 January 2015. http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5128/france-no-go-zones, Accessed on 10 October 2015.

Kern, S. "Germany: Migrants' Rape Epidemic". Gatestone Institute. http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6527/migrants-rape-germany, Accessed on 9 October 2015.

Kovács J. Magyarország katonai stratégiája: 2. kötet. Budapest, 1995.

Lakshmanan, I. A. R. "Financial War". Bloomberg. April 2014. http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/financial-war, Accessed on 01 November 2015.

Lane, E. "The rise of the UK's private security companies". BBC. 2 November 2010. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-11521579, Accessed on 23 September 2015.

Martin, M. "German spy says Salafists trying to recruit refugees". Reuters. 17 September 2015. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/17/us-europe-migrants-germany-salfists-idUSKCN0RH-2VM20150917, Accessed on 17 October 2015.

"Muslim Mob chases cops from 'No Go' Zones in UK: video". 28 January 2015. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dao89RedIco, Accessed on 10 October 2015.

Netanyahu, B. Fighting Terrorism. New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 1995.

"Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, and relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I), 8 June 1977". International Comittee of the Red Cross. 08 June 1977. https://www.icrc.org/ihl/WebART/470-750057, Accessed on 23 September 2015.

Rácz A. "Russia’s Hybrid War in Ukraine: Breaking the Enemy’s Ability to Resist". The Finnish Institute of International Affairs. 16 June 2015. http://www.fiia.fi/en/publication/514/russia_s_hybrid_war_in_ukraine/, Accessed on 07 October 2015.

"Radical Islamists recruit male youths in refugee camps in Germany". RT. 11 September 2015. https://www.rt.com/news/315058-islamists-recruit-refugee-camps/, Accessed on 17 October 2015.

Rebala, P. and Wilson, Ch. "Growth of Muslim Populations in Europe Map". http://time.com/3670892/muslims-europe-map/, Accessed on 10 October 2015.

Reid, S. Armies of the East India Company 1750–1780. Oxford: Osprey Publishing, 2009.

Resperger I., Kiss Á. P. and Somkuti B. Aszimmetrikus hadviselés a modern korban. Budapest: Zrínyi Kiadó, 2013.

Sabrina, A. "Somali Children as Human Shields in Combat, Abused and Forced into Marriage: Rights Group". International Business Times. 22 February 2012. http://www.ibtimes.com/somalichildren-human-shields-combat-abused-forced-marriage-rights-group-414346, Accessed on 23 October 2015.

Samuels, J. "Sky Finds 'Handbook' For EU-Bound Migrants". Sky News. 13 September 2015. http://news.sky.com/story/1551853/sky-finds-handbook-for-eu-bound-migrants, Accessed on 4 October 2015.

Scahill, J. Blackwater: The Rise of the World's Most Powerful Mercenary Army. Nation Books, 2007.

Singer, P.W. "Outsourcing War". Foreign Affairs. 2005. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2005-03-01/outsourcing-war, Accessed on 23 September 2015.

The Military Balance 2011. IISS. "The World’s Biggest Public Companies". Forbes. http://www.forbes.com/global2000/list/#tab:overall, Accessed on 22 October 2015.

Thomas, J., Stillion, J. and Rehman, I. "HARD ROC 2.0: Taiwan and Deterrence Through Protraction". Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. 21 December 2014. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/186741/2014-10-01_CSBA-TaiwanReport-1.pdf, Accessed on 08 October 2015.

"US & Allied Killed and Wounded". Watson Institute, Brown University. April 2015. http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/human/military, Accessed on 28 October 2015.

"War for Diamonds: Executive Outcomes in Sierra Leone". Soldiers of Misfortune. http://www.soldiersof-misfortune.com/history/eo-sierra-leone.htm, Accessed on 23 September 2015.

Wasserbly, D. "ConOps conundrum". Jane’s Defence Weekly, 30 September 2015.

Watson, P. J. "Report: Muslim Migrants Raping Women & Children at German Refugee Camp". InfoWars. http://www.infowars.com/report-muslim-migrants-raping-women-children-at-germanrefugee-camp/, Accessed on 8 October 2015.

##submission.downloads##

Megjelent

2017-08-16

Hogyan kell idézni

Kiss, R. (2017). The Future of War, the Wars of the Future . Honvédségi Szemle – Hungarian Defence Review, 145(1), 30–57. Elérés forrás https://kiadvany.magyarhonvedseg.hu/index.php/honvszemle/article/view/504