Scenarios for Korea

Absztrakt

After a series of missile tests in 2017, 2018 brought along direct negotiations between the US and North Korea as well as between the two Koreas. Are we at the doorstep of a peace process? The outcome of the negotiations so far is highly uncertain. This paper tries to model the possible scenarios in case of failure, as well as in case of success of the upcoming negotiation. Could negotiations reach an end for the crisis? Would a peace treaty with South Korea and the US really serve the best interest of the North Korean regime? Is the continued existence of the present regime in North Korea really in the best interest of China? Who would be the main beneficiary of a Korean reunification? And what if negotiations fail, and the military option is back on the table? Would the Northern artillery really flatten Seoul as retaliation for a surgical strike? Could North Korea wage a nuclear strike without the consequence of being annihilated? These and similar questions are attempted to be answered by this paper.