Strategic Management Methods in Support of Defence Preparation against Hybrid Warfare
Kulcsszavak:
hybrid warfare, military education and training, strategic management, scenario, PESTLE, SWOTAbsztrakt
This paper presents an integrative approach for education of security and defence personnel at postgraduate level for analytical thinking in role-playing exercise scenarios related to hybrid warfare and defence against hybrid threats. The main goal is the development of capabilities and resilience of defence personnel to timely perceive hybrid threats, to manage them, and successfully respond. Combined and successive application of several methods from strategic management field could be beneficial for effective education and training of defence personnel. We start with content analysis and comparative reviews in basic lessons about hybrid warfare and hybrid threats. Next step is the scenario method as it is a very useful tool for connecting theoretical issues with practical applications that are, in the end, the most important. Role-playing in a hypothetical scenario helps students check themselves how they understand the phenomenon of hybrid warfare and how they would respond to hybrid threats. Then a PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental) analysis follows that helps make a comprehensive and structured
approach to the problem exposed in the exercise scenario. Next step is oriented towards identifying weaknesses and vulnerabilities, as well as the strengths and advantages of the country in the given scenario. For this step we use SWOT, (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis. SWOT obtains an upgrade over the PESTLE analysis. PESTLE gives a comprehensive structured presentation of the country’s situation, while SWOT identifies weak points as well as strong ones. The priority of the hybrid adversary is to find and exploit weak points of the target of the hybrid attack and avoid or neutralize its strengths.
Hivatkozások
• Giannopoulos, G. et al. “The Landscape of Hybrid Threats: A Conceptual model,” European Commission, Ispra, 2020, PUBSY No.123305.
• Hoffman, F. “Conflicts in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars,” Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, Arlington, Virginia (December 2007).
• Huss, W. “A Move Toward Scenario Analysis”. International Journal of Forecasting, 4 (1988), 377–388.
• Kiss, Á. P. “The Role of Territorial Defence Forces in a Peace and War,” Proceedings of The 19th Annual Conference of the Conflict Studies Working Group,” Budapest, Hungary, 27–31 May 2019, 2020, 159–170.
• Qiao, L. and Xiangsui, W. “Unrestricted Warfare,” PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House, 1999, Beijing, China.
• Mattis, J. and Hoffman, F. “Future Warfare: The rise of Hybrid Wars”. Proceedings Magazine, US Naval Institute, 132/11/1233, November 2005.
• Mitrovic, M. and Nikolic, N. “Hybrid Warfare – Contribution to Concept Definition, Content and Models,” book (in printing process, publication office of Serbian MoD, to be published in 2022).
• Nation, R. C. “War in the Balkans, 1991–2002,” Strategic Studies Institute, USA, 2003.
• Nikolic, N. “Models of Selective Military Service in Modern Conditions,” Vojno Delo, No. 4, a journal of the University of Defence in Belgrade, 2021, 90–109.
• Nikolic, N. “Former Soldiers Attitudes Towards Active Reserve Service,” XV International symposium SymOrg-2016, Faculty of Organizational Sciences, 2016, 708–712.
• Nikolic, N. Comparative Review of Hybrid Warfare and Special Warfare. In Thematic Conference Proceedings of International Scientific Conference “Archibald Reiss Days 2017”. Belgrade: Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies 2017, 253–262.
• Nikolic, N. Connecting Conflict Concepts: Hybrid Warfare and Warden’s Rings. Information & Security: An International Journal, Vol. 41, 2018, 21–34.
• Takács, G. A. and Kiss Á. P. “Territorial Defence Forces: a key element of Hungary’s resilience in postmodern war,” Proceedings of the conference on National Resilience: Opportunities and Challenges in a Changing Security Environment, May 9–10, 2018, Budapest, Hungary, 2018, 295–317.
• Warden, J. Air Theory for the Twenty-first Century. In an Air War College Study Battlefield of the Future: 21st Century Warfare Issues (103–124). USA, Alabama, Maxwell Air Force Base: Air University Press, 1995.
• Warden, J. The Enemy as a System. Airpower Journal, Spring 1995, 41–55.
