Comprehensive Threat Meets Total Defence

Szerzők

  • Dr Michael Miklaucic

Kulcsszavak:

hybrid warfare, gray zone, global jihad, Russia, China, total defense, asymmetric response

Absztrakt

The West is at war. The United States, its allies, and partners in Europe, Asia, and throughout the world – whether they recognize it or not – are at war. The enemy in this war is global authoritarianism, particularly as practiced by the Chinese Communist
Party and the Putin regime in Russia, but also by lesser adversaries such as North Korea, Iran, and the nebulous global network of Salafi jihadists. To be clear, this is not a war of peoples against peoples; this is not about Chinese, Russians, or Muslims versus Americans or Westerners. This is a war between regimes in which people are among the many weapons wielded in a competition for global influence and power. The distinctive attribute of this war is its non-kinetic dimensions. It is not a war fought by our respective armed forces – though that can, does, and may yet occur. It is fought for the most part in the diplomatic, information, economic, and other domains; what are commonly referred to as the “gray zone”. The battlespaces are predominantly, but not exclusively, in the civilian domains.

Információk a szerzőről

Dr Michael Miklaucic

Senior Fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, Washington D.C., USA

Hivatkozások

• Adams, G. and Murray, S. Mission Creep: The Militarization of US Foreign Policy? Georgetown University Press, 2014.

• Applebaum, A. “Putinism: the Ideology,” Strategic Update 13.2, London School of Economics and Political Science, February 2013 (https://www.lse.ac.uk/ideas/Assets/Documents/updates/LSEIDEAS-Putinism-The-Ideology.pdf).

• Bērziņš, J. “The Theory and Practice of New Generation Warfare: The Case of Ukraine and Syria”. The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 2020, 33:3, 355–380. DOI: 10.1080/13518046.2020.1824109 (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13518046.2020.1824109?needAccess=true).

• Bradsher, H. S. “Tibet Struggles to Survive”. Foreign Affairs, July 1969 (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/1969-07-01/tibet-struggles-survive?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=gap_ds&gclid=CjwKCAjwjtOTBhAvEiwASG4bCPlk90gAgGnbLqWYgYa5V5PTkHfJwvkY0_ndFMxq-EWu1kMJualu-BoCd1gQAvD_BwE).

• Byman, D. “Jihadi Networks Are More Resilient Than We Think”. Foreign Policy, November 2, 2021 (https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/02/jihadi-terrorism-threat-us-europe/).

• China: The Three Warfares, U.S. Department of Defence, Office of Net Assessment, May 2013 (https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading%20Room/Litigation_Release/Litigation%20Release%20-%20China-%20The%20Three%20Warfares%20%20201305.pdf).

• Cimmino, R. “Threat from Tibet? Systematic Repression of Tibetan Buddhism in China,” Harvard International Review, Fall 2018 (https://hir.harvard.edu/repression-tibetan-buddhism-china/).

• Clark, C. “The Future of the Global Jihadist Movement After the Collapse of the Caliphate,” RAND Commentary, December 11, 2018 (https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/12/the-future-of-the-globaljihadist-movement-after-the.html).

• Clunan, A. L. “Russia and the Liberal World Order,” Ethics and International Affairs, 32, no. 1, 2018 (https://nps.edu/documents/105858948/106279825/Clunan_Russia+and+Liberal+World+Order_2018/b7e24a1c-88ea-4d0a-b60f-681bbcc27c4d).

• Coyne, C. J. “Delusions of Grandeur: On the Creeping Militarization of U.S. Foreign Policy,” Working Paper no. 11-11, Mercatus Center, George Mason University, February 2011 (https://ppe.mercatus.org/system/files/wp1111-creeping-militarization-of-us-foreign-policy.pdf).

• Di Carlo, I. “In chaos, they thrive: The resurgence of extremist and terrorist groups during the COVID-19 pandemic,” European Policy Centre, May 5, 2020 (https://www.epc.eu/en/Publications/In-chaos-they-thrive-The-resurgence-of-extremist-and-terrorist-group~32c800).

• Donohue, L. K. “The Limits of National Security” by Georgetown University Law Center, 2011 (https://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2027&context=facpub).

• Doshi, R. The long game: China’s grand strategy to displace American order. Oxford University Press, July 8, 2021.

• Dugin, A. “Fascism – Borderless and Red”. 1997 (https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?A2=russian-studies;4a3176b4.0905).

• Dunlop, J. B. “Aleksandr Dugin’s Foundations of Geopolitics,” The Europe Center, Stanford University, undated (https://tec.fsi.stanford.edu/docs/aleksandr-dugins-foundations-geopolitics).

• Eisenkot, G. and Saboni, G. “Guidelines for Israel’s National Security Strategy,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, October 2019 (https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/media/4613).

• “Excerpts From Putin’s State-Of-The-Nation Speech,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, April 25, 2005 (https://www.rferl.org/a/1058630.html).

• Fiala, O. and Pettersson, U. “ROCK Solid Preparedness: Resistance Operations Concept in the Shadow of Russia,” PRISM V.8, N.4, June 11, 2020 (https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/2217669/rock-solid-preparedness-resistance-operations-concept-in-theshadow-of-russia/).

• Fitzduff, M. Our Brains at War. Oxford University Press 2021.

• Fubini, F. Interview with Sergey Karaganov. L’Economia, April 8, 2022 (https://www.corriere.it/economia/aziende/22_aprile_08/we-are-at-war-with-the-west-the-european-security-order-isillegitimate-c6b9fa5a-b6b7-11ec-b39d-8a197cc9b19a.shtml).

• Galeotti, M. “I’m Sorry for Creating the ‘Gerasimov Doctrine’”. Foreign Policy, March 5, 2018 (https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/05/im-sorry-for-creating-the-gerasimov-doctrine/).

• Gershaneck, K. “To Win without Fighting: Defining China’s Political Warfare”. Marine Corps University Press, June 17, 2020 (https://www.usmcu.edu/Outreach/Marine-Corps-University-Press/Expeditions-with-MCUP-digital-journal/To-Win-without-Fighting/).

• “Getting to Less? Exploring the Press for Less in America’s Defence Commitments” Center for Strategic and International Studies, Issue Briefs series, 2020 (https://www.csis.org/analysis/gettingless-exploring-press-less-americas-Defence-commitments).

• “Getting to Less? The Innovation Superiority Strategy” Center for Strategic and International Studies, Issue Briefs series, 2020 (https://www.csis.org/analysis/getting-less-innovation-superioritystrategy).

• “Getting to Less? The Minimal Exposure Strategy” Center for Strategic and International Studies, Issue Briefs series, 2020 (https://www.csis.org/analysis/getting-less-minimal-exposure-strategy).

• Giles, A. “Valery Gerasimov’s Doctrine,” Universitat Potsdam, September 2020 (https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Alexander-Giles-2/publication/346195526_%27Valery_Gerasimov%27s_Doctrine%27/links/5f bcc1b1a6fdcc6cc65e48d6/Valery-Gerasimovs-Doctrine.pdf?origin=publication_detail).

• “Getting to Less? The Progressive Values Strategy” Center for Strategic and International Studies, Issue Briefs series, 2020 (https://www.csis.org/analysis/getting-less-progressive-values-strategy).

• Hadjitodorov, S. and Sokolov, M. “Blending New-generation Warfare and Soft Power: Hybrid Dimensions of Russia-Bulgaria Relations,” Connections QJ 17, no. 1, 2018 (https://doi.org/10.11610/Connections.17.1.01).

• Hintjens, H. “Is The Persecution Of Falun Gong In China Tantamount To Genocide?,” Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 9, No. 9, September 2021 (https://www.jpolrisk.com/is-the-persecution-offalun-gong-in-china-tantamount-to-genocide/).

• Hoffman, F. “Conflict in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars,” Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, December 2007 (https://www.potomacinstitute.org/images/stories/publications/potomac_

hybridwar_0108.pdf).

• Hoffman, F. “Examining Complex Forms of Conflict: gray Zone and Hybrid Challenges,” PRISM V. 7, no. 4, November 2018 (https://cco.ndu.edu/news/article/1680696/examining-complex-formsof-conflict-gray-zone-and-hybrid-challenges/).

• Hurlock, M. H. “Review: Social Harmony and Individual Rights in China,” Columbia Law Review Vol. 93, No. 5, June 1993 (https://www.jstor.org/stable/1122966?seq=1).

• “If Crisis or War Comes,” Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, 2018 (https://rib.msb.se/filer/pdf/28706.pdf).

• “In the Matter of the South China Sea Arbitration before An Arbitral Tribunal Constituted Under Annex VII to the 1982 United nations Convention on the Law of the Sea,” July 12, 2016 (https://web.archive.org/web/20190129031833/https://pca-cpa.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/175/2016/07/PH-CN-20160712-Award.pdf).

• Ingram, H. J. “Islamic State’s English-language magazines, 2014–2017: Trends & implications for CT-CVE strategic communications,” International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, 2018 (https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep29421.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3Abb776bcd63bbe9e17e61eeeb405f9795&ab_segments=&origin=).

• Inkster, N. The Great Decoupling, C. Hurst and Company, 2020.

• Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, March 2021 (https://insideDefence.com/sites/insideDefence.com/files/documents/2021/mar/03032021_nsg.pdf).

• Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, The White House, March 2021 (https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/NSC-1v2.pdf).

• Jakhar, P. “Whatever happened to the South China Sea ruling?” Lowy Institute, July 12, 2021 (https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/whatever-happened-south-china-sea-ruling).

• Jardine, B. “Great Wall of Steel China’s Global Campaign to Suppress the Uyghurs,” The Wilson Center, March 2022 https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/uploads/documents/Great%20Wall_of_Steel_rpt_web.pdf.

• Kania, E. B. and Laskai L. “Myths and Realities of China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy,” Center for a New American Security, January 28, 2021 (https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/myths-and-realities-of-chinas-military-civil-fusion-strategy).

• Kania, E. “Made in China 2025 Explained: A deep dive into China’s techno-strategic ambitions for 2025 and beyond, The Diplomat, February 1, 2019 (https://thediplomat.com/2019/02/madein-china-2025-explained/).

• Kapusta, P. “The gray Zone”. https://www.soc.mil/SWCS/SWmag/archive/SW2804/GrayZone.pdf

• Kennan, G. “The Inauguration of Organized Political Warfare [Redacted Version],” April 30, 1948, History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, Obtained and contributed by A. Ross Johnson. Cited in his book ‘Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty’, Ch1 n4. NARA release courtesy of Douglas Selvage. Redacted final draft of a memorandum dated May 4, 1948, and published with additional redactions as document 269, ‘FRUS, Emergence of the Intelligence Establishment.’ https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/114320

• Kovalev, A. “For Opposition to Putin’s War, Look to the Fringes of His Empire”. Foreign Policy, May 20, 2022 (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/20/russia-ukraine-war-casualties-deaths-putinethnic-minorities-racism/).

• Liang, F. et al. “Constructing a Data-Driven Society: China’s Social Credit System as a State Surveillance Infrastructure,” Policy and Internet, Volume 10, Issue 4, December 2018 (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/poi3.183).

• Lissner, R. F. “The National Security Strategy Is Not a Strategy: Trump’s Incoherence Is a Reminder of Why a New Approach Is Needed”. Foreign Affairs, December 19, 2017 (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2017-12-19/national-security-strategy-not-strategy?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=gap_ds&gclid=Cj0KCQjwhLKUBhDiARIsAMaTLnGTsKdjiJCEv7TRc7FJV4XUL1RkyEBvM_WaQ4Lbauuj19SWkg0fN7UaAuOpEALw_wcB).

• Macaes, B. Belt and Road: A Chinese World Order. Hurst and Company, London UK, 2018.

• “Made in China 2025: The making of a high-tech superpower and consequences for industrial countries”. Merics Papers on China, December 2016 (https://merics.org/en/report/made-china-2025).

• Maizland, L. “China’s Repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang,” Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounder, March 1, 2021 (https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-repression-uyghurs-xinjiang).

• Matthews, R. and Yan, N. Z. “Small Country ‘Total Defence’: A Case Study of Singapore,” Defence Studies, 2007, 7:3, 376–395. DOI: 10.1080/14702430701559289 (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14702430701559289).

• McBride, J. and Chatzky, A. “Is ‘Made in China 2025’ a Threat to Global Trade?” Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounder, May 13, 2019 (https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/made-china-2025-threat-global-trade).

• McMaster, H. R. “How China Sees the World: And How We Should See China”. The Atlantic, May 2020 (https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/05/mcmaster-china-strategy/609088/).

• “Military-Civil Fusion and the People’s Republic of China,” U.S. Department of State One-Pager. https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/What-is-MCF-One-Pager.pdf

• Morris, L. J. et al. “Gaining Competitive Advantage in the gray Zone; Response Options for Coercive Aggression Below the Threshold of Major War”. Santa Monica: RAND. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2900/RR2942/RAND_RR2942.pdf

• Naji, A. B. The Management of Savagery: The Most Critical Stage Through Which the Umma Will Pass. John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University, May 23, 2006 (https://azelin.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/abu-bakr-naji-the-management-of-savagery-the-most-criticalstage-through-which-the-umma-will-pass.pdf).

• Navalny, Alexei. “Millions watch jailed critic’s ‘Putin palace’ film”. BBC News, January 20, 2021. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55732296

• News, Republic of Georgia, Ministry of Defence, December 20, 2017 (https://mod.gov.ge/en/news/read/6261/total-defence-concept).

• O’Donnell, L. “Terrorism Is Making a Comeback, and Africa Is the Hot Spot”. Foreign Policy, May 6, 2022 (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/06/terrorism-africa-hotspot-isis-boko-haram/).

• “Overview of Daesh’s Online Recruitment Propaganda Magazine, Dabiq,” by The Carter Center, December 2015 (https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/peace/conflict_resolution/counteringisis/dabiq-report-12-17-15.pdf).

• Peng, Y. “Fundamentals to Observe for Maintaining and Shaping National Security in the New Era: Study the Outline for Studying the Overall National Security Outlook”. People’s Daily, April 26, 2022 translated and published by CSIS Interpret: China (https://interpret.csis.org/translations/fundamentals-to-observe-for-maintaining-and-shaping-national-security-in-the-new-era-study-the-outline-for-studying-the-overall-national-security-outlook/).

• Liang, Q. and Xiangsui, W. “Unrestricted Warfare,” Beijing: PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House, February 1999 (https://www.c4i.org/unrestricted.pdf).

• Raska, M. “China and the ‘Three Warfares’”. The Diplomat, December 18, 2015 (https://thediplomat.com/2015/12/hybrid-warfare-with-chinese-characteristics-2/).

• Rumer, E. “The Primakov Not Gerasimov Doctrine in Action,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2019 (https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Rumer_PrimakovDoctrine_final1.pdf).

• Security Strategy for Society, Finland Government Resolution / 2. 11. 2017 (https://turvallisuuskomitea.fi/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/YTS_2017_english.pdf).

• Sjurson, D. “Militarization of U.S. Foreign Policy: How to Lose a Cold War With China”. The Diplomat, January 12, 2022 (https://thediplomat.com/tag/militarization-of-u-s-foreign-policy/).

• Stone, J. “Finland writes to 900,000 military reservists amid heightened tensions with Russia”. The Independent, May 22, 2015 (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/finland-writesto-900-000-military-reservists-amid-heightened-tensions-with-russia-a38941.html).

• “Strategic Defence Review, 2017–2020”. Republic of Georgia, Ministry of Defence (https://mod.gov.ge/uploads/2018/pdf/SDR-ENG.pdf).

• Tan, T. Y. “Singapore: Civil-Military Fusion”. In M. Alagappa (ed.) Coercion and Governance: The Declining Political Role of the Military in Asia. 276–293., Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2001.

• “The Party leads on everything: China’s changing governance in Xi Jinping’s new era,” MERICS China Monitor, Sept 24, 2019 (https://merics.org/en/report/party-leads-everything).

• “The Swedish Defence Commission secretariat” – unofficial summary, “Resilience: The total defence concept and the development of civil defence 2021–2025,” The Swedish Defence Commission secretariat, December 20, 2017 (https://www.government.se/4afeb9/globalassets/government/dokument/forsvarsdepartementet/resilience---report-summary---20171220ny.pdf).

• To, J. J. H. Qiaowu: Extra-Territorial Policies for the Overseas Chinese. Koninklijke Brill nv, Leiden, The Netherlands, 2014 (https://media.oiipdf.com/pdf/b391832b-b758-40ff-9246-d8b6ee3566de.pdf).

• Total Defence 2022, Ministry of Defence, Government of Singapore (https://www.mindef.gov.sg/oms/imindef/mindef_websites/topics/totaldefence/index.html).

• Tsonchev, T. S. “The Kremlin’s New Ideology”. The Montreal Review, January 17 (https://www.themontrealreview.com/2009/The-Ideology-of-Vladimir-Putin-Regime.php).

• “U.S. and U.N. on Jihadi Threat in 2021,” The Wilson Center (https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/us-and-un-jihadi-threat-2021).

• Votel, J. L. et al. “Unconventional Warfare in the gray Zone”. Joint Force Quarterly, January 2016. https://ndupress.ndu.edu/JFQ/Joint-Force-Quarterly-80/article/643108/unconventional-warfare-in-the-gray-zone/

• Wither, J. K. “Back to the Future? Nordic total defence concepts”. Defence Studies, 20:1, January 26, 2020 (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14702436.2020.1718498?scroll=top&needAccess=true).

• Jinping, X. “Achieving Rejuvenation Is the Dream of the Chinese People,” Speech made when visiting the exhibition “The Road to Rejuvenation”. November 29, 2012 (http://www.npc.gov.cn/englishnpc/c23934/2020ChC.06/32191c5bbdb04cbab6df01e5077d1c60.shtml).

• “Xi Jinping’s daughter Xi Mingze living in America, reveals US Senator Hartzler”. The Economic Times, February 21, 2022 (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/xi-jinpings-daughter-xi-mingze-living-in-america-reveals-us-senator-hartzler/articleshow/89728856.cms?from=mdr).

• Xi Jinping speech on the CCP’s 100th anniversary, July 1, 2021 (https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Full-text-of-Xi-Jinping-s-speech-on-the-CCP-s-100th-anniversary).

• Yan, X. “Chinese Values vs. Liberalism: What Ideology Will Shape the International Normative Order?” The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Volume 11, Issue 1, Spring 2018 (https://academic.oup.com/cjip/article/11/1/1/4844055).

• Zetter, K. Countdown to Zero Day: Stuxnet and the Launch of the World’s First Digital Weapon, Crown Publishers, November 2014.

##submission.downloads##

Megjelent

2023-01-18

Hogyan kell idézni

Miklaucic, M. (2023). Comprehensive Threat Meets Total Defence. Honvédségi Szemle – Hungarian Defence Review, 150(1-2.), 134–157. Elérés forrás https://kiadvany.magyarhonvedseg.hu/index.php/honvszemle/article/view/924

Folyóirat szám

Rovat

Military Sciences