Complex Challenge of Complex Societies: Hybrid Threats of the New Millennium

Absztrakt

The paper outlines some remarks concerning the conceptual background of hybrid warfare. Focusing on the wider societal aspect of the phenomenon it suggests that legitimacy can be considered a key element of hybrid conflicts and proposes that such
concepts as channels and embeddedness may be fruitful to interpret the processes and patterns on which hybrid threats are based. This section also introduces a kind of network approach. These elements of the presentation may contribute to a better illustration and comprehension of certain characteristics of hybrid warfare in complex societies. After briefly outlining the methodology of the empirical research, the second part of the paper introduces some of the results of case studies. It covers a wide scope of the research problem, so the processes and patterns introduced in the first section are demonstrated using various examples. That is, in the case studies the hybrid operation potential of both interest-driven states and ideologically motivated non-state actors is outlined. The case studies have a specific focus on contemporary cyber operations and the informational and cognitive dimensions
of influence operations. The empirical examples cover relevant elements concerning Europe, and imply that hybrid actors can find several ways to enforce their will. Finally, the outcomes and research results are summarized, also addressing the problem of employing non-military and military approaches in light of the complexity of hybrid conflicts.