Az orosz–ukrán konfliktus eszkalációjával kapcsolatos orosz külpolitikai döntéshozatalt befolyásoló tényezők
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35926/HSZ.2023.5.3Kulcsszavak:
orosz–ukrán háború, orosz külpolitika, SWOT-analízisAbsztrakt
A 2022. február 24-én eszkalálódott orosz–ukrán konfliktus alapjaiban kérdőjelezte meg korunk nemzetközi rendszerének szabályait. A konkrét katonai agresszióval kapcsolatos orosz döntéshozatal vizsgálata elengedhetetlen a Kreml külpolitikai gondolkodásmódjának feltérképezése szempontjából. Az elemzés lehetőséget adhat az esetleges jövőbeli konfliktusok előrejelzésére és proaktív megelőzésére. A tanulmány az orosz döntéshozatalt a SWOT-analízis módszerével elemzi, ami nóvumként értékelhető a tudományterületen.
Hivatkozások
• Andrianova, Anya: Russia’s Economy Grew 4.7% in 2021, Quickest Pace Since 2008. Bloomberg, 18. 02. 2022. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-18/russian-economy-grew-4-7-in-2021-quickest-pace-since-2008
• Approval of the Authorities. Levada Center. https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/approval-of-theauthorities/
• A speech delivered at the MSC 2007 by the President Vladimir Putin. Informácní Systém Masarykovy Univerzity. https://is.muni.cz/th/xlghl/DP_Fillinger_Speeches.pdf
• Belarus: Economy. Global Edge. https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/belarus/economy
• Brown, David: Ukraine conflict: Where are Russia’s troops? BBC, 23. 02. 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60158694
• Buchard, Hans von der – Hernandez, Ameriva: US-German tensions over Russia-backed Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Politico, 21. 01. 2021. https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-joe-bidennord-stream-2/
• Buchholz, Katharina: Infographic: Ukrainians’ Desire to Join NATO and the EU. Statista Infographics, 31. 05. 2023. https://www.statista.com/chart/26933/ukrainians-survey-nato-eu
• Buzan, Barry – Wæver, Ole – Wilde, Jaap de: Security: A New Framework for Analysis. Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998.
• Connolly, Kate: Angela Merkel says she lost influence over Putin as a lame duck leader. The Guardian, 25. 11. 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/25/angela-merkel-says-she-lost-influenceover-putin-as-a-lame-duck-leader
• Deák András: Az orosz külpolitikai gondolkodás története (1992–1997). PhD-értekezés. Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem, Nemzetközi Kapcsolatok Doktori Iskola, 2003.
• Delong, Marek: The foreign policy of the Russian Federation in the time of Yevgeny Primakov (1996–1999). In: Markiyan, Malsky – Vovk, Roman – Bajor, Pjotr (eds): Global and Regional Dimensions of International Security. Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, 2020, 335–346.
• Euro area annual inflation up to 5.8%. European Council (No. 25/2022). Eurostat, 02. 03. 2022. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14358044/2-02032022-AP-EN.pdf/617fee08-c46f-453aa308-4fa3d33f4aae
• Gidadhubli, Raghavenbrarao G.: Resignation of Boris Yeltsin: Why Now? Economic and Political Weekly, 2000/5., 259–261. https://www.epw.in/journal/2000/05/commentary/resignation-borisyeltsin.html
• Götz, Elias: Near Abroad: Russia’s Role in Post-Soviet Eurasia. Europe-Asia Studies, 2022/9., 1529–1550. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09668136.2022.2133086; DOI: 10.1080/09668136.2022.2133086
• Graham-Harrison, E.: Russia holds high-profile Afghanistan talks with Taliban. The Guardian, 20. 10. 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/20/russia-holds-high-profile-afghanistantalks-with-taliban
• Grossmann, Michael: Role Theory and Foreign Policy Change: The Transformation of Russian Foreign Policy in the 1990s. International Politics, 2005/42., 334–351. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/palgrave.ip.8800115; DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.ip.8800115
• Indicators. Levada-Center. https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/
• Koldunova, Jekatyerina: Russia as a Euro-Pacific power: Dilemmas of Russian foreign policy decision-making. International Relations, 2015/3., 378–394. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0047117815600935; DOI: 10.1177/0047117815600935
• Kuczyński, Grzegorz: Putin’s Failed Blitzkrieg: Russian Forces Are Advancing On Kyiv. Warsaw Institute, 25. 02. 2022. https://warsawinstitute.org/putins-failed-blitzkrieg-russian-forces-advancing-kyiv/
• Kuzio, Taras: Ukraine’s relations with the West since the Orange Revolution. European Security, 2012/3., 395–413. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09662839.2012.655272; DOI: 10.1080/09662839.2012.655272
• Leigh, Dough: SWOT Analysis. In: Silber, Kenneth H. – Foshay, Wellesley R. – Watkins, Ryan – Leigh, Doug – Moseley, James L. – Dessinger, Joan C.: Handbook of Improving Performance in the Workplace. Pfeiffer, 2009, 115–140. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9780470592663.ch24; DOI: 10.1002/9780470592663.ch2
• Lipman, Maria: Media Manipulation and Political Control in Russia. Chatham House, 01. 2009. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Russia%20and%20Eurasia/300109lipman.pdf
• Moltz, James Clay: Russia in Asia in 1996: Renewed Engagement. Asian Survey, 1997/1., 88–94. https://online.ucpress.edu/as/article-abstract/37/1/88/23394/Russia-in-Asia-in-1996-Renewed-Engagement?redirectedFrom=fulltext; DOI: 10.2307/2645778
• NATO Russia military comparison 2022. Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293174/natorussia-military-comparison/
• Natural Gas Production by Country – Worldometer. https://www.worldometers.info/gas/gas-productionby-country/
• Putin’s party wins Russian parliamentary election. Dw.com, 21. 09. 2021. https://www.dw.com/en/russia-putins-party-wins-majority-in-parliamentary-election/a-59232938
• Rácz András: Oroszország hibrid háborúja Ukrajnában. KKI-Tanulmányok, 2014/1. https://kki.hu/oroszorszag-hibrid-haboruja-ukrajnaban/
• Remarks by President Biden on America’s Place in the World. 05. 02. 2021. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/02/04/remarks-by-president-biden-on-americas-placein-the-world/
• Russia: Economy. Global Edge. https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/russia/economy
• Russia: Trade Statistics. Global Edge. https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/russia/tradestats
• Satter, Mark: Biden expected to push for heavy investment in Ukraine aid. Roll Call, 14. 01. 2021. https://www.rollcall.com/2021/01/14/biden-expected-to-push-for-heavy-investment-in-ukraine-aid/
• Selján Péter: Oroszország és a szíriai polgárháború. Nemzet és Biztonság, 2016/5., 14–30. https://www.nemzetesbiztonsag.hu/cikkek/nb_2016_5_04_seljan_peter_-_oroszorszag_es_a_sziriai_polgarhaboru.pdf
• Stockholm International Peace Research Insitute (SIPRI). Military expenditure (% of GDP) – Ukraine. The World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=UA
• Tálas Péter: Minszk-2 – megállapodás patthelyzetben. Nemzet és Biztonság, 2015/1. http://www.nemzetesbiztonsag.hu/cikkek/nb_2015_1_02_bevezeto.pdf
• Tarock, Adam: Iran and Russia in “strategic alliance”. Third World Quarterly, 1997/2., 207–224. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01436599714911; DOI: 10.1080/01436599714911
• The 50 largest economies in the world. Worlddata.info. https://www.worlddata.info/largest-economies.php
• The Military Balance 2022. The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2022.
• The World’s Top Oil Producers. Investopedia, 12. 05. 2023. https://www.investopedia.com/investing/worlds-top-oil-producers/
• Treaty on the establishment of the Union State. Moscow, 08. 12. 1999. https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%202121/v2121.pdf
• Ukraine and Donbass. Levada-Center, 04. 03. 2022. https://www.levada.ru/en/2022/03/04/ukraineand-donbass/
• Ukraine: attitude toward Russia 2021, by region. Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1008033/ukraine-public-opinion-toward-russia-by-region/
• Xenophobia and migrants. Levada-Center, 28. 01. 2022. https://www.levada.ru/en/2022/01/28/xenophobia-and-migrants/
• Yeltsin’s war warning. The Guardian, 09. 04. 1999. https://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/apr/09/balkans12
• Yermak, Andriy: De-oligarchization of Ukraine is President Zelenskyy’s top priority. Atlantic Council, 08. 11. 2021. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/de-oligarchization-of-ukraine-ispresident-zelenskyys-top-priority/
• Zelenskyy approval rating 2023. Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1100076/volodymyrzelensky-s-approval-rating-ukraine/A
